* Makinde (left), Armstrong-Bello (right)
By Muji Armstrong-Bello
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) today stands at one of the lowest points in its post-2015 history, weakened not by external suppression but by internal recklessness. The ill-fated November national convention, far from stabilizing the party, deepened its fractures and exposed a dangerous deficit of political maturity among those who drove the process. Central to this misadventure is Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde, whose conduct before, during, and after the convention has left both himself and the party politically exposed.
What remains of the PDP after November is a fragile structure struggling to command respect or relevance. The convention, instead of repairing long-standing grievances, institutionalized exclusion. Expulsions, selective discipline, and factional triumphalism replaced dialogue and accommodation, alienating critical blocs across the South-South, North-Central, and parts of the South-West.
Rather than project unity, the process reinforced the image of a party incapable of managing disagreement. At a time when opposition politics demands strategic restraint, the PDP chose emotional assertiveness — a choice that weakened its national bargaining power and narrowed its electoral appeal.
Governor Makinde’s rise within the PDP was built on credible electoral success and relative administrative stability in Oyo State. Unfortunately, those advantages appear to have bred overconfidence. National politics is not an extension of state control, and the November convention revealed a failure to appreciate this distinction.
By aligning too quickly and too forcefully with a single faction, Makinde abandoned the role of bridge-builder and embraced that of enforcer. In doing so, he mistook dominance for leadership and urgency for courage. The backlash was inevitable. Party elders felt sidelined, governors grew uneasy, and stakeholders who once viewed him as a unifying figure quietly withdrew support.
This was not bold leadership. It was political impatience.
Control of a state does not automatically translate into national influence. Nigerian national politics is sustained by layered alliances, negotiated compromises, and deep institutional memory. The November convention demonstrated that Makinde underestimated this reality.
Since then, his national reach has visibly contracted. He retains authority in Oyo, but influence beyond that boundary has weakened. Politics rewards those who expand coalitions, not those who shrink them. Influence without willing followers is illusion.
The convention also reinforced an uncomfortable contrast. While the ruling party absorbs dissent through delay and negotiation, the PDP reacts with haste and punishment. This difference explains why one party governs while the other repeatedly litigates itself into irrelevance.
Makinde’s role in the November convention placed him firmly on the wrong side of this divide. The episode weakened the PDP’s ability to attract defectors, negotiate alliances, or present itself as a credible alternative ahead of 2027.
At this point, Governor Seyi Makinde may need to consider political asylum — not abroad, but within Nigeria’s crowded opposition space. The African Democratic Congress (ADC), perpetually available for displaced ambition, might yet offer refuge.
Having helped plunge the PDP into one of its most avoidable and irreversible errors, Makinde now stands politically exposed: too compromised for consensus, too polarising for leadership, and too inexperienced in national brinkmanship to command rescue.
In politics, when you burn the house you hoped to inherit, the only option left is to look for shelter elsewhere.
* Prince Armstrong-Bello is a political analyst and commentator with a focus on party politics, power dynamics, and electoral strategy.
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